<![CDATA[Novara Research: The Engine Room]]>https://research.novaraworks.io/s/the-engine-roomhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!89TD!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff00f6d48-86ce-4868-8bea-dce75bd0721f_400x400.pngNovara Research: The Engine Roomhttps://research.novaraworks.io/s/the-engine-roomSubstackMon, 20 Apr 2026 07:12:06 GMT<![CDATA[Transition Score]]>https://research.novaraworks.io/p/transition-scorehttps://research.novaraworks.io/p/transition-scoreTue, 24 Mar 2026 14:16:09 GMTIn our last article, we introduced Regime Instability Score (RIS) as a way to understand how persistent the so-called “scaling-shock” (r²) pressure is. When plotted against price deviation percentile and rolling 2-year exponent percentile, we noticed curious timing.

Does RIS flag momentum/transition shifts in the 2-year rolling exponent percentile? Can w…

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]]><![CDATA[Experiment: Correlative proxy metric]]>https://research.novaraworks.io/p/experiment-correlative-proxy-metrichttps://research.novaraworks.io/p/experiment-correlative-proxy-metricWed, 25 Feb 2026 04:33:49 GMTWe wanted to know whether our internal rolling instrumentation (read: top secret metrics) could tell us something about where we sit in the price deviation distribution. In other words, does anything else deviate in tune with price? We have some early data, and the answer is maybe.

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