Bitcoin Structural Integrity: 2026-02-22
Price in log, semilog, and log-log.
Bitcoin is trading 43.71% below its implied price, in accordance with the power law. This has had no significant impact on the long-term model fit.
Daily Drift Diagnostics
Exponent: 5.6442 (-0.103%)
R²: 0.943 (+0.0212%)
We’ve shown how the exponent and r² evolve over time, and how rolling windows reveal oscillations around the structural baseline. The foundation of all of this is the Bitcoin price chart itself.
Let’s look at the chart in linear, semi-log, and log-log form. We’ll also include the implied price. Remember, the slope of implied price is our reference exponent.
In this chart, both the Price and Year axes are linear. The most recent price history is easy to see, and the volatility is evident. However, the long-term structure is indecipherable. From this view, it’s impossible to really understand what happened before 2018, as the Price appears flat.
In the semi-log chart, with Price now in log form, we have a much better idea of those earlier years. Growth appears proportional, it oscillates around the Implied price, and travels in a channel. Additionally, this chart does a great job at showing Bitcoin’s decaying growth, which we observe as the Implied slope gradually bends downward.
In the final chart, both Price and Year are log-scaled. This is where we observe the power law as a straight line.
With the slope known, we can extend time out to understand where the implied price may fall in the future. To be clear, this isn’t a prediction so much as using geometry of the power law itself to project forward.
Here are the same three views, this time with the implied line extended and scaled through time.
When we push time out, on a linear chart, all existing price history practically collapses along the curve of the implied price.
On the semi-log chart, we see the same decaying growth, with orders of magnitude of potential growth.
The log-log chart again reveals our straight-line scaling through time. That is the power law.
Together, the exponent, the fit (r²), and the implied line give us valuable information on whether Bitcoin’s structure is intact. Our regular updates here monitor that stability.
Foundations of Conviction