Novara Research

Novara Research

The Engine Room

Transition Score

An [experimental] Bitcoin regime-stress index.

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Novara Research
Mar 24, 2026
∙ Paid

In our last article, we introduced Regime Instability Score (RIS) as a way to understand how persistent the so-called “scaling-shock” (r²) pressure is. When plotted against price deviation percentile and rolling 2-year exponent percentile, we noticed curious timing.

Does RIS flag momentum/transition shifts in the 2-year rolling exponent percentile? Can w…

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